Uganda’s oil project was a symbol of ambitious plans, but also of delays and political disputes. Today, the situation is different. The infrastructure needed to export Ugandan oil is now in the final stages of construction. The country has named its export blend “Pearl Sweet,” and investors are preparing for the moment when Uganda becomes an oil exporter for the first time. With conflicts continuing in some of the world’s leading oil-producing regions, every new stable producer is becoming more important.

The oil market is volatile again

For several months now, the oil market has been in an exceptionally difficult situation. According to the latest report from the International Energy Agency, global oil supply could decline by 5.7 million barrels per day throughout 2026, to 100.7 million barrels per day. Global oil inventories have also declined.

The key issue is, above all, disruptions to supplies from the Middle East. Oil prices reached $110 per barrel in early September. Supply security is no longer an abstract concept from strategic reports, but a direct problem for industry, transportation, and inflation. This is precisely the environment in which Uganda is entering the market.

Six billion barrels underground

Uganda’s oil potential is enormous, although a distinction must be made between total oil reserves and the amount that can actually be extracted.

The Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) estimates total oil resources in the Albertine Graben stand at approximately 6 billion barrels. Of this amount, around 1 billion barrels are currently considered reserves – resources that can be recovered under current conditions. If part of the contingent resources is taken into account, the potential size of the reserves could rise to approximately 1.4 billion barrels.

Production is initially expected to come mainly from two projects. The first, Tilenga, is operated by TotalEnergies. According to estimates, its peak production is expected to reach 190,000 barrels per day. The second Kingfisher is operated by CNOOC, whose peak daily production is expected to reach 40,000 barrels. These volumes are still relatively small compared with the global oil market. However, they could be enough for Uganda to become a significant regional producer.

 

Uganda Has a Solution to its lack of access to the Sea

Uganda faces a significant problem with oil exports – the country is landlock. The solution to this problem is the 1,443 km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which runs from Hoima in Uganda, to the coast of Tanzania, near the port of Tanga. The pipeline will have a capacity of up to 246,000 barrels per day.

Uganda’s “Pearl Sweet” crude has specific properties – it is a medium-to-heavy, waxy crude with a relatively high pour point. This makes it necessary to equip the pipeline with insulation and an electric heating system.

 

When will production begin?

Until recently, 2026 was cited as the start date for production. However, according to the latest schedule, commercial production has been postponed to 2027. This does not, however, mean that the investment has been stopped.

According to information provided by EACOP – the official operator of the project – in early September, construction of the pipeline has reached 92.7% completion. The project has entered its final phase, which includes, among other things, finishing works and preparing the infrastructure for start-up.

 

Uganda will not become a new Saudi Arabia

Uganda’s estimated production capacity of around 230,000 barrels per day will not significantly change the global oil balance. Under favorable conditions and if the estimates prove accurate, this will account for approximately 0.2 percent of global production. Uganda will therefore not become a new Saudi Arabia, or even a producer comparable to Nigeria.

The project could nevertheless have strategic importance, particularly given concerns over global reserves and disruptions to oil supplies from key regions. In this situation, any additional source will increase the geographic diversification of the global market.

For Uganda itself, the project will be of major importance. The country will begin to generate revenue from exports and, consequently, tax revenue as well. Whether the money from oil exports will translate into real economic growth for the country will ultimately depend on whether the new funds are invested in further infrastructure development.