The conflict in the Middle East is affecting… the Seychelles. What impact is this long-distance war having on tourism in the African islands?

Although indicators began to improve in July, the impact will be reflected in the country’s final GDP growth.

On September 29, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for Seychelles’ real GDP growth in 2026 to 1 percent, down from 5.8 percent in 2025. The Fund also noted that the effects of the conflict in the Middle East were particularly visible in the tourism sector from March through June. In the following months, the first signs of a recovery began to appear.

The problem is the flight connection network

According to an IMF analysis, about 60 percent of tourists arriving in the Seychelles travel via Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi. When the conflict disrupted air traffic and reduced some of the Gulf carriers’ flights, the island lost access to key transportation routes. In the first weeks of the crisis, the number of tourist arrivals fell by an average of 32 percent year-over-year.

This situation almost immediately impacted the entire economy of the Seychelles, where tourism is a major sector of GDP. The IMF describes it (tourism) as the main source of foreign exchange and an important driver of growth, employment, and government revenue.

The money spent by tourists goes not only to hotels and restaurants but also flows through transportation, retail, construction, and other services. When the number of visitors decreases, the effect spreads to other sectors.

Official data confirms the scale of the decline. The Seychelles National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported in September that 245,179 tourists had arrived on the islands by September 13, 2026, compared with 266,968 during the same period in 2025. This represents a decline of 8.2 percent.

The situation gets deteriorated in March 2026

The first few weeks of the year did not predict such a strong decline in the tourism sector in the Seychelles. By March 15, 78,194 tourists had arrived in the country, just 0.4 percent fewer than during the same period a year earlier. At the same time, tourism revenue in January and February reached approximately $208 million, representing a 27 percent year-over-year increase.

However, the situation deteriorated significantly in the second half of March. For the entire month, the number of tourist arrivals was already 37.2 percent lower than in March 2025. According to the Central Bank of Seychelles, this was primarily due to disruptions in air traffic related to the conflict in the Middle East and reduced connections through key transit hubs. The data suggests that tourists did not simply lose interest in the Seychelles’ Indian Ocean islands. Instead, reaching the destination became significantly more difficult.

The Seychelles have felt the impact of the Middle East Conflict beyond tourism

The latest official data shows that the conflict in the Middle East has also affected other sectors of the Seychelles’ economy, which have been heavily dependent on imports for years. According to the IMF, approximately 95 percent of the country’s energy is imported from abroad.

Rising fuel prices—and, consequently, rising energy costs—have therefore hit countries like the Seychelles even harder. Maritime shipping has also been affected, while higher import prices may push up the cost of food, energy, and materials needed by businesses.

The Seychelles are not the only country facing a tourism crisis in the Indian Ocean

A similar trend can be observed in other tourism-dependent economies. The IMF noted that the Maldives, like the Seychelles—which are dependent on tourism and imported energy—are feeling the effects of the conflict through lower tourist arrivals and higher global energy prices. The IMF estimates real GDP growth for the Maldives at just 1 percent in 2026 (by comparison, growth in 2025 was 6.3 percent).

Small island nations are vulnerable to armed conflicts not only in the countries with which they trade directly, and the example of the Seychelles illustrates this perfectly.

Currently, the Seychelles are already beginning to emerge from the worst of the crisis. The IMF reports “the beginnings of a recovery,” and official data shows that after the spring downturn, the situation has begun to improve.

This will not reverse the impact on the Seychelles’ overall 2026 economic performance, but it offers some hope for stronger indicators in 2027 – provided the situation in the Middle East does not deteriorate further.