Ethiopia and Eritrea on the brink of war. This is not just about the border, but also about access to the Red Sea

The Horn of Africa has once again become the focus drawn international attention. In early October 2026, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of sending military forces into its territory. Asmara rejected these allegations and responded with accusations of its own against Ethiopia. Both countries brought the dispute before the United Nations, and the situation in northern Ethiopia has become increasingly unstable.

However, to understand why the conflict is escalating again, it is necessary to look at the history of both countries, their economic interests, and the strategic importance of the Red Sea.

A history that did not end with peace

Eritrea regained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. However, earlier disputes over the border led to a war that broke out in 1998. Although the fighting formally ended with a peace agreement in 2000, but relations between the countries remained hostile for years.

A breakthrough finally came in 2018, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a declaration of peace and friendship. The agreement was intended to open a new chapter in bilateral relations. However, it did not resolve all issues concerning the border, security, and mutual trust.

Another source of tension was the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which lasted from 2020 to 2022. During the conflict, Eritrean forces fought together alongside Ethiopian federal forces and their allied groups against forces affiliated with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022, ended major hostilities between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, but it did not resolve all security issues in the region.

The Red Sea is shifting the balance of power

One of Ethiopia’s most significant challenges is its lack of access to the sea. After Eritrea became independent, Ethiopia lost its coastline. Today, it relies significantly on the ports of neighboring Djibouti, which has major implications for imports, exports, and transportation costs.

Control over ports means influence over trade and logistics, which is why Ethiopian authorities are increasingly presenting access to the Red Sea as a strategic issue. Eritrea sees Ethiopian calls for renewed access to the Red Sea as a potential threat to its sovereignty. On October 9, 2026, the Eritrean Minister of Information accused Addis Ababa of laying the groundwork for aggression, pointing to statements by Ethiopian leaders regarding access to the sea.

Ethiopia rejected Eritrea’s accusations and, in turn, accused Asmara of aggression, claiming that Eritrean forces had entered Ethiopian territory, which justified its right to self-defense. Addis Ababa demanded the withdrawal of foreign forces, closed its embassy in Asmara, and ordered ten Eritrean diplomats to leave the country.

Ethiopia and Eritrea exchange accusations as tensions rise

In a letter addressed to representatives of the UN Security Council, the Ethiopian foreign minister described the incursion by Eritrean forces as an act of aggression and invoked the right to self-defense.

Eritrea denies that its operations constitute an invasion. On October 10, it asked the UN Security Council to take steps against Ethiopia, accusing it of pursuing a policy that threatens Eritrean sovereignty.

Witnesses interviewed by Reuters reported seeing Eritrean troops in northern Ethiopia. However, not all details regarding troop movements and responsibility for specific attacks have been independently verified.

Will the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea escalate in the coming weeks?

A potential military conflict could combine intensify existing internal conflicts in Ethiopia. Renewed fighting in Tigray, as well as instability in neighboring regions, are worsening the humanitarian situation and increasing the risk of further escalation.

On October 10, the UN Secretary-General called on both sides to immediately cease hostilities and resume dialogue under the Pretoria Agreement. The African Union also called for restraint and a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

In the coming weeks, the key question will be whether both governments scale back military operations and begin negotiations. For Ethiopia, the stakes include national security and access to trade routes. For Eritrea, they are sovereignty and territorial integrity.