South African Inflation Expectations Stabilise in Third Quarter

South African inflation expectations held at 4.4% for 2026 in a third-quarter survey, while forecasts for 2027 and 2028 eased ahead of the Reserve Bank’s September 23 rate decision.

By Ukumbi Afrika16 September 2026 · 2 min read

Illustration combining South African rand banknotes, stacks of coins, the national flag, city buildings and a financial chart.

Johannesburg — South African inflation expectations stabilised in the third quarter after rising sharply in the previous quarter, as the impact of an oil-price shock linked to the Iran war began to ease, according to a survey released on Wednesday.

The quarterly survey, commissioned by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), is closely watched by policymakers and provides an indication of how analysts, businesses and organised labour view the inflation outlook.

The survey showed that respondents expect headline consumer inflation to average 4.4% in 2026, unchanged from the previous quarter.

Expectations for the following two years improved. Forecast inflation for 2027 fell to 4.0% from 4.2%, while the forecast for 2028 declined to 3.8% from 3.9%.

The longer-term expectations are particularly important for monetary policy because interest-rate decisions typically take between 12 and 24 months to have their full effect on economic activity.

South Africa’s annual consumer inflation stood at 4.3% in July, the latest month for which official price data is available.

The SARB’s inflation target is 3%, with a tolerance band of one percentage point on either side.

The central bank surprised financial markets in July by leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged, following its first rate increase in three years in May.

Investors are now focused on the SARB’s next monetary policy decision, scheduled for September 23.

Source: Reuters
Reporting: Alexander Winning
Editing: Bate Felix

Why it matters

Stable inflation expectations could give South African policymakers greater room to assess the economy without facing an immediate deterioration in price expectations. The decline in expected inflation for 2027 and 2028 also suggests that respondents see inflation pressures easing over the medium term. However, oil prices, geopolitical developments and currency movements remain important risks for South Africa because higher imported energy costs can feed through into transport, production and consumer prices. For businesses and investors, the September 23 SARB decision will therefore be closely watched for signals on the future direction of borrowing costs and the broader economic outlook.

Filed under

Business & Economy · Southern Africa · News · Finance · Markets

Published

16 September 2026