Pretoria — South Africa's economy is estimated to be about 5% larger than previously reported following a benchmarking and rebasing exercise, strengthening its position as sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy and widening its lead over Nigeria.

Statistics South Africa said on Thursday that the country's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 was revised upward to 8.04 trillion rand ($483 billion), from 7.64 trillion rand previously.

Nigeria, the region's second-largest economy, recorded nominal GDP of 441.5 trillion naira ($328 billion) last year, according to the figures provided.

The latest revision further increases the gap between the two economies. Nigeria previously held the lead in dollar terms, but repeated devaluations of the naira contributed to South Africa overtaking it.

What Changed in South Africa's GDP Calculation?

Statistics South Africa changed the base year for its GDP calculations to 2022 from 2015, incorporating updated information on the structure and performance of the economy.

Rebasing is a standard statistical exercise that allows countries to reflect changes in economic activity, emerging industries and previously undercounted production.

The latest exercise included previously unobserved or inadequately measured activities such as self-generated electricity, illicit and illegal mining, manufacturing activity and e-hailing services.

All 10 economic sectors tracked by the agency recorded higher output under the revised estimates, with mining, finance and trade registering the largest increases.

The changes provide a more comprehensive picture of economic activity, particularly in sectors that have expanded or evolved since the previous base year.

Implications for Government Debt

The revised GDP figures could also improve the appearance of South Africa's public finances by reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio, a closely watched indicator of the government’s ability to manage its debt relative to the size of the economy.

Johann Els, chief economist at financial services firm PSG, said the upward revisions would make South Africa's debt figures look better, particularly the debt-to-GDP ratio that the government is working to bring down.

A lower debt-to-GDP ratio can improve perceptions of fiscal sustainability and influence how investors and credit-rating agencies assess a country’s financial position. However, the revision does not itself reduce the amount of government debt outstanding.

South Africa and Nigeria: The Economic Comparison

South Africa's revised nominal GDP of approximately $483 billion compares with Nigeria’s $328 billion, based on the figures provided for 2025.

The comparison highlights the importance of exchange-rate stability when measuring the relative size of African economies in US dollar terms. Currency depreciation can substantially reduce the dollar value of domestic economic output even when the underlying volume of production does not fall by the same proportion.

While GDP rebasing can reveal previously uncounted economic activity, it does not automatically mean that a country has experienced an equivalent increase in real economic growth, household incomes or living standards.

For policymakers and investors, the revised figures offer a more updated basis for evaluating the size of South Africa's economy, its fiscal position and its standing among African markets.

Source: Reuters

Reporting: Kopano Gumbi & Nilutpal Timsina.